Monday, September 26, 2005

Bills Week Three Recap

I can't think of a better topic for my first post.

The Bills are 1-2 after week three. The defense has kept them in games and given the offense a chance to win (yes, even against Tampa, when the Bills were within a TD until the second half.)

Unfortunately, J.P. Losman is guiding the offense like a rookie (which he basically is, in all fairness.) The kid obviously has the raw skills to be a good QB, but he hasn't played particularly well. He's completing under 50% of his passes, which is never a good sign. On the plus side, he has only thrown 1 INT so far, partly because opposing defenders are dropping easy picks.

To make matters worse, jettisoned QB Drew Bledsoe is the third highest rated passer in the league. He's putting up good stats, and actually brought the Cowboys back in the second half last night.

So did the Bills make the wrong decision by letting Bledsoe go? Methinks not, and here's why:

The Cowboys' offensive line is much better than the Bills'. Drew has always been a good passer when he has all day to throw the ball. However, like any quarterback, Drew has his limitations, and the Cowboys OL masks his inability to move around effectively. I don't expect Drew to be able to run like Mike Vick, but a 10 year+ QB should be able to shuffle around in the pocket without patting the ball and staring down his receiver. The defensive book on Bledsoe is simple: get in his face and make him move. If you do that consistently, he will turn the ball over and make bad plays. It's inevitable; ask any Pats or Bills fans.

a) 21 of 37 56.8% for 302 yards 1 TD, 3 INT's rating-58.6
b) 21 of 33 63.6% 188 yards 1 TD, 3 INT's, rating-51.1
c) 20 of 44 45.4% 193 yards 0 TD, 2 INT's, rating-39.3
*thanks to www.billszone.com forums for the stats

Those are J.P. stats for his first three starts.... Well, actually, I'm a big fat know-it-all lying blowhard. (Rodomont.) They're actually Peyton Manning's numbers. I'm not saying Losman will be as good as Manning. But I am saying he's in pretty good company for the first few career games.

The Bills need a mobile QB like J.P. They do not have the time or cap space to acquire and develop top-notch OL talent. A mobile QB helps keep pressure off the line. Look at Buffalo during the height of the Flutie/Johnson controversy. The OL went from giving up the most sacks in the league under Johnson to relatively few under Flutie. The lineman were the same; the difference was the QB. This year's defense is good, but aging. The running game and special teams are there. The missing link is an efficient QB. Kelly Holcomb is not the answer; just ask Cleveland. I believe J.P. can develop into that 65% passer the Bills desperately need.

I stand by my 6-10 prediction, but I'd love to be wrong.

3 Comments:

At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

bills suck

 
At 11:56 AM, Anonymous RC said...

All good points, and people should not start yelling about JP just yet....he is a rookie. And not every rookie is going to start out like Rothlisberger. With time and experience he will be one of the premier QB's in the NFL 3-5 years. Hopefully sooner. The Defense is solid but is aging Vincent, Milloy, Fletcher, Spikes are all veterans, which means in 3-5 yrs they may not be in starter condition. But I am glad to see Willis McGahee get the stick out of his ass and move north-south instead of east-west. anyways THE BUFFALO BILLS.

 
At 11:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hehe paul has a blog!!

 

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